The health and economic burden of smoking in 12 Latin American countries and the potential effect of increasing tobacco taxes: an economic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, smoking tobacco causes 7 million deaths annually, and this toll is expected to increase, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. In Latin America, smoking is a leading risk factor for death and disability, contributes to poverty, and imposes an economic burden on health systems. Despite being one of the most effective measures to reduce smoking, tobacco taxation is underused and cigarettes are more affordable in Latin America than in other regions. Our aim was to estimate the tobacco-attributable burden on mortality, disease incidence, quality of life lost, and medical costs in 12 Latin American countries, and the expected health and economic effects of increasing tobacco taxes. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed a Markov probabilistic microsimulation economic model of the natural history, medical costs, and quality-of-life losses associated with the most common tobacco-related diseases in 12 countries in Latin America. Data inputs were obtained through a literature review, vital statistics, and hospital databases from each country: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. The main outcomes of the model are life-years, quality-adjusted life-years, disease events, hospitalisations, disease incidence, disease cost, and healthy years of life lost. We estimated direct medical costs for each tobacco-related disease included in the model using a common costing methodology for each country. The disease burden was estimated as the difference in disease events, deaths, and associated costs between the results predicted by the model for current smoking prevalence and a hypothetical cohort of people in each country who had never smoked. The model estimates the health and financial effects of a price increase of cigarettes through taxes, in terms of disease and health-care costs averted, and increased tax revenues. FINDINGS: In the 12 Latin American countries analysed, we estimated that smoking is responsible for approximately 345 000 (12%) of the total 2 860 921 adult deaths, 2·21 million disease events, 8·77 million healthy years of life lost, and $26·9 billion in direct medical costs annually. Health-care costs attributable to smoking were estimated to represent 6·9% of the health budgets of these countries, equivalent to 0·6% of their gross domestic product. Tax revenues from cigarette sales cover 36·0% of the estimated health expenditures caused by smoking. We estimated that a 50% increase in cigarette price through taxation would avert more than 300 000 deaths, 1·3 million disease events, gain 9 million healthy life-years, and save $26·7 billion in health-care costs in the next 10 years, with a total economic benefit of $43·7 billion. INTERPRETATION: Smoking represents a substantial health and economic burden in these 12 countries of Latin America. Tobacco tax increases could successfully avert deaths and disability, reduce health-care spending, and increase tax revenues, resulting in large net economic benefits. FUNDING: International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

[Financial impact of smoking on health systems in Latin America: A study of seven countries and extrapolation to the regional level]. / Impacto económico del tabaquismo en los sistemas de salud de América Latina: un estudio en siete países y su extrapolación a nivel regional.

OBJECTIVE: Estimate smoking-attributable direct medical costs in Latin American health systems. METHODS: A microsimulation model was used to quantify financial impact of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, lung cancer, and nine other neoplasms. A systematic search for epidemiological data and event costs was carried out. The model was calibrated and validated for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, countries that account for 78% of Latin America's population; the results were then extrapolated to the regional level. RESULTS: Every year, smoking is responsible for 33 576 billion dollars in direct costs to health systems. This amounts to 0.7% of the region's gross domestic product (GDP) and 8.3% of its health budget. Cardiovascular disease, COPD, and cancer were responsible for 30.3%, 26.9%, and 23.7% of these expenditures, respectively. Smoking-attributable costs ranged from 0.4% (Mexico and Peru) to 0.9% (Chile) of GDP and from 5.2% (Brazil) to 12.7% (Bolivia) of health expenditures. In the region, tax revenues from cigarette sales barely cover 37% of smoking-attributable health expenditures (8.1% in Bolivia and 67.3% in Argentina). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking is responsible for a significant proportion of health spending in Latin America, and tax revenues from cigarette sales are far from covering it. The region's countries should seriously consider stronger measures, such as an increase in tobacco taxes.

Impacto económico del tabaquismo en los sistemas de salud de América Latina: un estudio en siete países y su extrapolación a nivel regional / Financial impact of smoking on health systems in Latin America: A study of seven countries and extrapolation to the regional level

RESUMEN Objetivo Estimar los costos médicos directos atribuibles al tabaquismo en los sistemas de salud de América Latina. Métodos Se utilizó un modelo de microsimulación para cuantificar el impacto económico en enfermedad cardiovascular y cerebrovascular, enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica (EPOC), neumonía, cáncer de pulmón y otras nueve neoplasias. Se realizó una búsqueda sistemática de datos epidemiológicos y de costos de los eventos. El modelo se calibró y validó para Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México y Perú, países que representan el 78% de la población de América Latina; luego se extrapolaron los resultados a nivel regional. Resultados Cada año el tabaquismo es responsable de 33 576 millones de dólares en costos directos para el sistema de salud. Esto equivale a 0,7% del producto interno bruto (PIB) de la región y a 8,3% del presupuesto sanitario. La enfermedad cardiovascular, la EPOC y el cáncer fueron responsables de 30,3%, 26,9% y 23,7% de este gasto, respectivamente. El costo atribuible al tabaquismo varió entre 0,4% (México y Perú) y 0,9% (Chile) del PIB y entre 5,2% (Brasil) y 12,7% (Bolivia) del gasto en salud. En la región, la recaudación impositiva por la venta de cigarrillos apenas cubre 37% del gasto sanitario atribuible al tabaquismo (8,1% en Bolivia y 67,3% en Argentina). Conclusiones El tabaquismo es responsable de una importante proporción del gasto sanitario en América Latina, y la recaudación impositiva por la venta de cigarrillos está lejos de llegar a cubrirlo. La profundización de medidas como el aumento de impuestos al tabaco debería ser seriamente considerada por los países de la región.

ABSTRACT Objective Estimate smoking-attributable direct medical costs in Latin American health systems. Methods A microsimulation model was used to quantify financial impact of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pneumonia, lung cancer, and nine other neoplasms. A systematic search for epidemiological data and event costs was carried out. The model was calibrated and validated for Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, countries that account for 78% of Latin America’s population; the results were then extrapolated to the regional level. Results Every year, smoking is responsible for 33 576 billion dollars in direct costs to health systems. This amounts to 0.7% of the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) and 8.3% of its health budget. Cardiovascular disease, COPD, and cancer were responsible for 30.3%, 26.9%, and 23.7% of these expenditures, respectively. Smoking-attributable costs ranged from 0.4% (Mexico and Peru) to 0.9% (Chile) of GDP and from 5.2% (Brazil) to 12.7% (Bolivia) of health expenditures. In the region, tax revenues from cigarette sales barely cover 37% of smoking-attributable health expenditures (8.1% in Bolivia and 67.3% in Argentina). Conclusions Smoking is responsible for a significant proportion of health spending in Latin America, and tax revenues from cigarette sales are far from covering it. The region’s countries should seriously consider stronger measures, such as an increase in tobacco taxes.